Posts Tagged ‘Trend’


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Intermarket Analysis Suggests More on the Upside in June U.s. Treasury Bonds

Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

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June U.S. Treasury Bond futures (USM8) have been trading generally sideways at higher price levels for the past two weeks, after having backed off just a bit from the March high of 121 1/32. The overall technical picture for T-Bonds remains bullish despite the recent sideways trading range on the daily chart for June T-Bonds.

Using Inter-market Analysis, one can predict T-Bonds producing a bullish crossover by reviewing the Actual 10-day SMA Close line vs. a prediction. This suggests T-Bond futures prices will trend higher in the near term. The last bullish line crossovers occurred in late February, and prices did proceed to trend solidly higher for the next three weeks. One can also see on daily charts for June T-bonds that the bearish crossover signals have worked well for providing sell signals. On January 28 the Predicted 4-day EMA line produced a bearish crossover by moving below the Actual 10-day SMA Close line. Prices then declined for the next three weeks, into the late February low.

Also, inter-market signals have show bullish indicators. The Predicted Neural Index (PIndex), a proprietary indicator, predicts whether or not a three-day simple moving average of the typical price will be higher or lower two days in the future than it is today. The Predicted Neural Index compares two three-day moving averages to one another todays actual three-day moving average with a predicted three-day moving average derived from inter-market analysis data.

When the predicted simple three-day moving average value of typical prices is greater than todays actual three-day moving average value, the Predicted Neural Index is “1.00,” indicating that the market is expected to move higher over the next two days. That type of information can be very helpful in establishing short-term positions in forex and other markets ahead of moves such as Tuesdays strong rise in the USDX.

For more information on a foundation of inter-market analysis, there are many good books out there- just type in inter-market analysis in any search engine. Also, try tradertech.com and tradingeducation.com for additional knowledge.



By: Erik Cocks

About the Author:

Erik is a day trader using Intermarket Analysis as a trading foundation. He uses VantagePoint software to predict market moves in the Forex, Futures, and commodities markets.



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Bollinger Bands

Wednesday, April 7th, 2010


Contracting bands warn that the market is about to trend: the bands first converge into a narrow neck, followed by a sharp price movement. The first breakout is often a false move, preceding a strong trend in the opposite direction.

A move that starts at one band normally carries through to the other, in a ranging market.

A move outside the band indicates that the trend is strong and likely to continue – unless price quickly reverses.

A trend that hugs one band signals that the trend is strong and likely to continue. Wait for divergence (when the price is flat or rising or falling, but the MACD is going in the opposite direction…the price will break out in the direction of the MACD) or a Momentum Indicator to signal the end of a trend.

I use the BB’s for indication of when a breakout or breakdown is imminent. When the outside bands get very narrow, it means the price is consolidating and is getting ready for a breakout, either up or down.

At this point, it’s dangerous to have a position because you don’t know if it’s going to break up or down. When the bands get very narrow, it’s almost better to close out your old positions, even at a loss, until you see a clear direction. If you don’t want to close out an old position at a loss, at least hedge it. See more about hedging later in the Advanced Day Trade Forex course.

The BB’s can’t tell you which direction the breakout will be, the Chaos Oscillator (MACD) and Momentum will do that, and I always trade in the direction the Momentum and Chaos (MACD) are going.

Sometimes when using the slower timeframes, I use the outer BB’s as targets for my limit sell price. If the bands are really wide after a big move, I use the middle band as my limit target price.

Bollinger Bands are designed to capture the majority of price movement. When prices move beyond the upper or lower band, they are considered high (overbought) or low (oversold) on a relative basis.

More On Using Bollinger Bands:

First, the BB’s can be used as I mentioned before, as price targets. If the bands are narrow, the price will be jumping up & down within the two outer bands. As mentioned before, this is not the best time to be putting on a trade, as the trading range is too narrow, unless you can make a decent quick profit in a 1 or 5 minute chart.

If the range isn’t too narrow, you can ride it up and down and book pips. I only attempt this in a 1 or 5 minute timeframe using the 5/9/18/50 EMA’s. Don’t do it if you can’t make at least 5-10 pips up and down. The danger is in whipsaws.

Most of the time, unless the bands are too narrow, you can make trades by literally bouncing off the outer bands.

This is called “The Bollinger Bounce”.

When placing a trade, just set your stop at the outer BB and your price target limit sell order where the other outer band is.

If your trade rapidly approaches the limit price and all your indicators say that the price movement is just getting started & not likely to quickly reverse on you, then you should first either remove your limit price & let the price run, or, raise your limit price another 5-10 pips. Then raise your stop to either your entry point or past it, to lock in either breakeven or some profit in case the price suddenly reverses on you.

This is definitely what you should do in a price breakout. If the price keeps going up in an extended breakout, you just keep adjusting your stop upwards to lock in more profit (this is called a trailing stop, more later on this subject) and keep raising your limit also.

A Super Advanced method of using BB’s is to use two sets of BB’s, both with the middle band set at 18. Set one BB to a standard deviation of 3 and leave the other standard deviation at 1. This gives you 6 short term support/resistance lines to work with. Your initial stop and target are the outer bands, and your inner bands are used for your trailing stop and short term resistance and support. You can also trade off the two inner bands.

This method is very similar to using Fibonacci OR Average True Range (ATR), but is much easier to use and understand.

Pleave visit the author’s other trading sites for more trading information:

http://www.daytrade-forex.com http://www.daytradeforex.com http://www.daytradeforex.com/products.htm http://www.professionalforextrading.info http://www.professionalforextradingonline.info http://www.successtrading2000.com http://www.successtrading2000.com/forex http://www.tradecurrency.ca/education.htm http://www.shortterminvestingsite.com



By: Cynthia Macy

About the Author:
Cynthia Macy has been trading various markets for over 12 years but now concentrates on the forex market. To learn more about forex trading, visit:

http://www.daytrade-forex.com

Request the ‘Trade of the Week’ to see actual trades using the trading methods and strategies.



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How to Use MACD in Forex and Stock Trading

Wednesday, February 17th, 2010


Before talking about MACD, let me tell you that I do not believe in using indicators. Most indicators (or all of them in fact) are lagging and they make false signals. Price chart is the best indicator and candlesticks are the only real time indicators we have.

MACD is one of the most delayed indicators indeed but it is different from all the other indicators. Since I discovered the power of MACD, I never removed it from my charts. MACD is a great indicator and if you consult with it in your trades, you make less mistakes.

What is the secret? The key secret is in “MACD delay”. It is so delayed and in this case, the delay is something that helps you a lot. How?

Most traders lose because they enter too early. They want to hit the top and bottom of the trends and so they go against the forming and ongoing trend because they think that they have found a good reversal signal… the trend has been going for such a long time and it is time to reverse and… emotions like this…

These are all emotions. You go against the trend, while you think you have found a good reversal signal, whereas the trend keeps on moving on its own direction. You were wrong.

What MACD does, is that it tells you that the trend is still strong and you should ignore the reversal signals you see.

MACD also tells you that trend is getting exhausted and may reverse soon. Of course MACD also makes mistakes sometimes but as far as I have seen, it is the strongest indicator because it is calm and delayed. It is not excited and overwhelmed.

So try MACD on your charts and see the difference. Use the default setting: 12 26 9. Do not try to make MACD faster through changing its setting. It will not have the same power anymore.

Ok! I think this is enough about MACD for now. Hope it helps.

Thanks for your time and patience.

By: Vahid Chaychi

About the Author:
Copyright 2009 – Vahid is a forex trader and forex market analyst. His website is the most reliable reference for advanced, intermediate and beginner forex traders: http://www.forexoma.com/

Join Vahid’s program now and start making money and learning forex at the same time. Earn while you learn: http://www.forexoma.com/live-market-analysis-program/



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